So this month I can be a bit positive. I have taken on board the lessons learnt from failed trades of previous months and used that to improve this month. Specifically in managing trades once they are open. In the past I have left trades open to see what happens to them because I didn’t have the experience to see something and know it was a sign to exit a trade or move a stop etc. Therefore trades either hit target or hit stop and very often they hit the stop after they could have been saved and closed early for either a profit or less of a loss.

Although, at the moment I set a 2R target, the trade that hit that target and went on to be a really good trade was on the GBP/AUD on the 7th March. I had seen a bullish engulfing candle at the end of an uptrend and also at a level of resistance on the daily chart. I went down to the 4 hour chart and spotted a Key Day Reversal (KDR) but price was already trading below that so I went down to the 1 hour chart and entered via an inside bar. Trade hit target and had I left it it would have hit a good 6 to 8R return. I am monitoring trades like this to expand my target setting for future. This trade was also good because I used 3 different time frames, something I am doing a lot more of now rather than just sticking to the daily.

I have been avoiding the GBP and EUR a lot this month around Brexit votes etc so my trade opportunities have been reduced. Hopefully this months performance is a taste of things to come, I have just got to stay focused and build on my success.

Another month goes by. Progress? Yes in knowledge….no in accumulating pips. Only placed two trades this month. I have been using the 4 hour chart now as well as the daily which has produced some extra opportunities plus also it is getting me looking at more charts.

The first trade was on the Gbp/Nzd and was based on a pin bar which formed on the 50ma and was on the daily chart. Nothing wrong with the entry but I didn’t manage the trade well and when a pin bar formed after my entry in the opposite direction I had a feeling things weren’t going to work out well, but instead of closing the trade for a profit I left it open and it hit the stop. Should have trusted my instinct more.

One thing I was pleased with this month, was my analysis of the charts. I felt like I was going a lot more in depth and using different time frames and chart patterns etc to make decisions. This was the case with my second trade which was on the CAD/CHF. Watching the daily chart I believe it had formed a double top at an order block I had drawn on. Going down to the 4 hour chart it appeared that price had previously formed a head and shoulders and triple top, all at around the same level. Price had come up from a low but had failed to break the 20ma and a KDR had formed. I therefore went short.

Unfortunately, although I had set my usual stop I didn’t account for the wider spreads overnight and the stop was hit by this. Very frustrating as price went on to hit my target.

After this I spotted another trade but was feeling a bit dejected so I didn’t feel I was in the right mood to trade and left it alone, in case I was making a rash decision. As it happened it would have been a good trade. All three would have hit targets this month if I had managed them better. Lesson learnt.

So January has not been a good month. I think coming back from a two week holiday with no contact with the markets at all meant that I was a bit rusty and forgot important rules to start off with. I was probably also too keen to enter the markets with my first trade and that is why it failed.

Normally I tend to trade pin bars but this month I seem to have got carried away with inside bars, however, I have been trading them in totally the wrong place….after a strong move. For example on the 8th Jan I went short on the NZD/CHF based on an inside bar. However, as I now know the strong move down meant it was going to pull back more (a dead cat bounce) and so I was too keen to enter and should have waited until the market had rested more.

This theme carried on through 4 out of my 6 trades this month. But even though I made mistakes I have learnt valuable lessons from them and so in a way they aren’t bad trades, as long as I don’t do it again!

The last two trades of the month I was pleased with and did get right. The first was the USD/CHF. It was a reversal based on a kdr on the daily. It moved strongly in my favour and I had moved the stop to break even due to high importance news coming out for the dollar on the 29th Jan. When the FOMC came out it ended up taking me out just above break even but although it was only slightly a winning trade I was more pleased that I had trusted myself to go against the trend due the candle pattern and next time I will close it before the FOMC comes out.

My last trade of the month hit its 2 R target. Maybe my best trade so far in terms of my analysis of the chart and the moving averages and where price might go in relation to those MAs. I knew I had enough room to play with to hit my 2R target before price got near to the converging MAs and bounced up (which is what it has done). It was on the NZD/CAD on the 30th Jan.

So on reflection a good learning month. Lessons learnt and next time those situations appear I will know how to handle them.

Damn….things were going well and then the beginning of December I was stopped out of a couple of trades and then because of a family holiday I have done nothing since, so was unable to make up lost ground. Never mind, the holiday has recharged the batteries and gave me time to reflect on where I have come over the last few months. I am so determined that 2019 will be the year my performance starts going up and I am sure it will.

 

So this month has been a good learning one and also another month where technically my performance curve is above zero. I placed 4 trades using my usual entry signals on daily charts.

To be honest I made mistakes on all of the trades but learnt some valuable lessons. I entered when I shouldn’t have on 3 of the trades and on the 4th I decided not to move my stop loss up to break even when I could have done to avoid high importance news taking me out. Two of the trades I had identified KDRs when in actual fact they were engulfing candles at the end of a trend signifying a turn. One took my stop out, the other I got lucky with and it hit my 2R target. I entered another trade (AUD/USD) based on an inside bar, however, I should have entered on the previous candle inside bar. If I had I would have hit my target. As it happens I was taken out at stop.

So I have learnt from all these and still ended up with a bit of profit at the end of the month and have accrued some pips.

As part of my development as a trader I will be writing a monthly blog. Not something I have ever done before but hopefully, apart from it being a good tool for me, it might inspire others.

I have been trading for less than a year and have had many downs, with some ups but I have always stayed disciplined. I was trying to go it alone but have admitted that that would be very difficult and so I now have a good mentor and strategy/tactics that I have full confidence in and which are already improving my results.

Will see how this month pans out and I will report on it at the end of the month.

 

Thanks for joining me!

Good company in a journey makes the way seem shorter. — Izaak Walton